11015 Arroyo Canyon Drive — CMA & Listing Strategy

11015 Arroyo Canyon Drive
The Madrones on Barton Creek • Austin, Texas 78736 • Lake Travis ISD
Listing Strategy & Market Analysis prepared exclusively for Martin Leach
Daniel Foreman | Jacquelyn Foreman
Foreman Property Group | eXp Realty Luxury | September 2026
A Note to Martin
You own something the Lake Travis market cannot manufacture: five private acres, behind a gate, in an eleven-lot enclave, in Lake Travis ISD — positioned closer to downtown than nearly anything else in the district. That is the asset. It is real, and it is scarce.
What the market will not do is pay for potential. Buyers in the $1.5M–$2.5M acreage band right now are disciplined, well-advised, and have inventory to choose from. They price condition ruthlessly, and they walk from projects.
This presentation does two things. It tells you honestly what the home is worth today, and what it is worth after a defined, budgeted preparation program. The gap between those two numbers is the reason we are having this conversation.
Property Snapshot
11015 Arroyo Canyon Drive | The Madrones on Barton Creek | Austin, TX 78736
Structure
4 Bedrooms | 3.5 Baths | 4,138 sq ft | 5.02 acres
Built 2003 | John Siemering custom | Masonry all sides | Slab
2-car side-entry attached garage (1,040 sq ft)
The Land
5.02 acres backing to greenbelt. Heavily wooded, mature oaks. Gated community of only 11 homesites. Well water and septic — no municipal utility bill.
Layout
Primary bedroom on main | 3 living areas | 2 dining areas | Beamed and high ceilings | Wired for sound | 3,172 sq ft down, 966 sq ft up
Amenities & Views
In-ground pool and hot tub | HOA $600 annually | Lake Travis ISD (Lake Pointe Elementary) | Views: Hill Country, Panoramic, Park/Greenbelt
Living area shown per builder measurement. Tax records reflect 4,068 sq ft. We recommend a professional measurement and floor plan prior to launch so the price-per-square-foot narrative rests on one defensible number.
What Makes 11015 Arroyo Canyon Scarce
The Madrones
Eleven homesites behind a gate. Not a subdivision — an enclave. Turnover here is measured in decades, not years.
Closest-In Acreage in LTISD
Multi-acre privacy with a Lake Travis ISD address and direct TX-71 access toward downtown. Almost every competing acreage listing sits materially further west.
Five Wooded Acres
Mature oaks, greenbelt backing, and true separation from neighbors. Buyers paying $2M for land want exactly this.
Panoramic Hill Country Views
Long views across the canyon, with a view corridor behind the pool we intend to reopen.
Siemering Custom Construction
Masonry all sides, beamed ceilings, three living areas. The bones are excellent. The finishes are 2003.
Pool & Outdoor Living
In-ground pool, spa, and extensive stone decking and patios — the lifestyle this buyer is shopping for.
The Honest Assessment
Every property has a defining constraint. Here, it is not the land, the location, or the construction. It is condition and presentation.
Stained and etched exterior concreteinstalled in 2003, never properly maintained
Faux-painted downstairs walls that read dated in photography
Granite countertops and heavy Mediterranean lighting from the original build
Approximately 14–16 windows with failed seals
Pool waterline tile and decking showing age; landscaping overgrown; the rear view corridor closed in by tree growth
We are not going to list around this. We are going to fix it.
None of it is structural. All of it is visual — which is precisely the category of problem that costs the most in a photograph and the least to solve. That is a favorable position to be in.
The Market You Are Entering
The relevant market is not "Austin." It is a specific band: Lake Travis ISD, one to ten acres, $1.5M to $2.5M. Over the trailing twelve months that market produced 140 listings. Here is what they did.
11.7
Months of Supply
36 active listings against 3.1 sales per month. Six months is balanced. This is a buyer's market.
39%
Sell-Through Rate
Only 37 of 95 concluded listings actually closed. 42 withdrawn, 16 expired.
$431
Closed Median $/SF
37 closed sales, trailing twelve months
$460
Active Median $/SF
Sellers are still asking 7% above where the market clears
Four Findings That Should Govern Our Decisions
Trailing 12 months | Lake Travis ISD | 1–10 acres | $1.5M–$2.5M | 140 listings
1
Six in ten listings never sell.
58 of 95 concluded listings were withdrawn or expired. In this band, the default outcome is failure. Pricing and presentation are not optimization — they are the difference between selling and not selling.
2
The market pays for speed.
Homes under contract within 60 days closed at 96.6% of original list price. Homes that took more than 90 days closed at 87.4%. That nine-point spread on a $2M home is roughly $180,000.
3
Condition is worth about 10%.
Sales marked Updated/Remodeled closed at a median $457/SF. Standard resale closed at $415/SF. On 4,138 square feet, that spread is roughly $174,000.
4
Contracts cluster January through April.
17 of 37 sales went under contract in Q1 and early Q2. Launch timing is a lever, and it is free.
Closed Comparable Sales
Trailing 12 months | The market tells us where it actually clears
Closed range: $355 – $476/SF |Median across all 25 comparable closed sales: $438/SF
The two closest matches to this home's current condition — 107 N Angel Light and 5252 McCormick Mountain, both dated 2000s builds on four to five acres — took 212 and 218 days and closed at $424 and $407 per square foot. That is the as-is outcome, and it is documented.
Active & Pending Competition
Closed comps inform. Actives govern entry pricing.
Active median: $460/SF | Active median days on market of all 36 active : 135 | Bottom-quartile active $/SF: ~$400
Note the pattern at the top of the table. Every acreage listing that started above $2M and was not updated has been cut — 21301 Dill Cir by more than $500,000 over 597 days. Overpricing acreage in this market is not a slow sale. It is a failed one.
The Condition Gap, Quantified
At 4,138 SF — what 11015 Arroyo Canyon is worth at each benchmark
The spread between the bottom of this chart and the top is $315,000. The preparation program on the next page costs $138,000.
Land & Enclave ↑
Five gated acres in LTISD with this proximity to town is genuinely rare. It supports the top of the range.
Construction & Layout ↑
Siemering custom, all-masonry, primary on main, three living areas. The floor plan still reads current.
Condition ↓
Today, the finishes place this home in the bottom quartile of its price band. This is the only variable we control, and it is fully controllable.
Corelogic's automated valuation as of August 25, 2026 returned $1,967,500 with a confidence score of 87 — squarely in line with our renovated conclusion, and well above our as-is conclusion.
The Preparation Program
Bids in hand, estimates pending, and what it totals
Kitchen and primary bath cabinet painting is already underway at your direction and is not included above.
Four of thirteen line items are firm bids covering $63,416 — 46% of the program. The remaining figures are our estimates from comparable work and will firm up as bids arrive. We do not expect the total to move outside $135,000–$150,000.
What the $138,000 Buys
Two paths, side by side
+$197K
Net Advantage of Preparing
After deducting every dollar of the preparation budget.
Every dollar spent on this program returns roughly $2.40 in gross value per dollar. That ratio is unusual — it exists here only because the home's deficiencies are cosmetic and highly visible, sitting on land and construction that are already excellent.
The second, unpriced benefit is probability. Six in ten listings in this band do not sell. The prepared version of this home is not competing in that statistic.
Our Pricing Rule
In today's Lake Travis market, listings that sell share two traits:
01 — Top-25% on Presentation
Condition, photography, staging, and digital marketing must place the home in the top quartile of visual quality for its price band. Buyers decide on the scroll, and they decide in about four to fifteen seconds.
02 — Bottom-25% on Pricing
Measured against active inventory, not closed comps. Closed comps tell you where the market was. Actives tell you where buyers are deciding right now.
Today this home would enter in the bottom quartile on presentation and, at Martin's expectations, the top quartile on price. That combination is the profile of the 58 listings that did not sell. The preparation program moves us to the opposite corner.
Recommended List Price Strategy
Post-preparation | Three defensible scenarios | Our recommendation in gold
1
★ Recommended: $1,950,000
$471/SF
Supported directly by 9208 Madrone Ranch Trail at $469/SF and 4503 Whirlwind Cove at $476/SF
Sits below every stale active above $2M, above every distressed acreage listing
Expected contract in 30–60 days; expected close $1,850,000 – $1,900,000
Consistent with the Corelogic valuation of $1,967,500
2
Aspirational: $1,995,000
$482/SF
Tests the top of the range on the strength of the five acres and the gate
Expect 90–120 days and one reduction of $50,000–$75,000
Acceptable only if Martin has no timeline pressure
3
Aggressive: $1,895,000
$458/SF
Designed to create urgency and competing offers inside the first two weeks
Use if timeline matters more than the last $50,000
Note that all three scenarios sit below the $2.3M figure from last year's appraisal. The next card addresses that directly.
On the $2.3M Appraisal
Martin, you mentioned an appraisal near $2,300,000 from roughly a year ago, and you were right to flag that it was not written for a purchase contract. We want to address it plainly rather than let it sit unspoken.
The county moved the other way
Travis County's assessed market value for this property fell from $2,048,269 in 2024 to $1,791,211 in 2025 — a 12.5% reduction. The taxing authority revalued downward.
The automated valuation agrees with our range
Corelogic, as of August 25, 2026: $1,967,500, range $1,803,500–$2,131,600, confidence score 87. That is a renovated-condition number, and our recommendation sits inside it.
Appraisals written outside a transaction behave differently
A non-purchase appraisal has no buyer, no competing offers, and no condition adjustment tested against the market. It is a useful data point. It is not a price.
We would rather tell you this now than discover it in an option period. The $1,950,000 recommendation is not a discount to your expectations — it is what the last twelve months of closed sales will actually support.
The Work, In Order
Sequence matters — doing this out of order costs money twice
1
Weeks 1–3 — Exterior & Rough
Window seal replacement. Concrete prep, resurface, stain and seal. Tree work and view-corridor thinning. Exterior soft wash. Weather-dependent, so it goes first.
2
Weeks 3–5 — Demo & Paint
Demo existing wood floors, floor prep and leveling. Then paint downstairs — faux removal, prime, neutralize. Paint before flooring, never after.
3
Weeks 5–8 — Finishes
Quartz countertops in kitchen and wet bar. Primary bath. Wood floor installation and shoe mold. Lighting package. Pool waterline tile with drain and refill.
4
Weeks 8–10 — Presentation
Landscape mulch, sod and flagstone last so it is fresh at photography. Post-construction deep clean. Staging. Photography, drone, video, Matterport.
Ten working weeks from vendor mobilization puts completion in mid-to-late November. We recommend holding the launch for late January — 17 of 37 sales in this band went under contract between January and April. Launching into that window is the single cheapest advantage available to us.
How We Market 11015 Arroyo Canyon
At eXp Luxury, the finest homes deserve the finest marketing. This property will be presented with professional design, ultra-premium materials, and global distribution.
Visual Capture
Magazine-quality stills, drone aerials showing the full five acres and the gate, cinematic video
3D Matterport tour and floor plan
Twilight exterior session for hero imagery
Digital Reach
Featured placement on eXpLuxury.com and 90+ luxury syndication partners
Premium media: Wall Street Journal, Mansion Global, Robb Report
Targeted high-net-worth campaigns across 75+ countries
Custom property microsite and QR code
Print & Event
Hardcover property brochure
Curated broker preview and private buyer event
Print placements in regional luxury lifestyle titles
Global Reach
The World's Largest Cloud Brokerage
eXp is the largest cloud brokerage in the world — 88,000+ agents across 25+ countries. Your listing benefits from direct access to relocation and investor networks in markets that move Austin luxury demand.
Local expertise. Global distribution.
New York
Los Angeles
San Francisco
Seattle
London
Dubai
Hong Kong
Mexico City
Our Concierge Commitment
A bespoke strategy, a coordinated team, and a private, discreet process from start to finish.
A Team of Experts on Your Side
Sales • Marketing • Technology • Creative • Legal • Financial — coordinated by Daniel and Jacquelyn directly. Every discipline represented, one point of contact. For this property that includes managing every vendor on the preparation program — scheduling, site access, quality control, and payment coordination — so you are not fielding calls from eight trades.
A Strategy Tailored to You
We approach each transaction with a custom plan based on your timeline, your tolerance for showings, and your priorities at the closing table. No template. No guesswork.
Your Privacy & Security Come First
Showing protocols, vendor coordination, and communication cadence designed for a high-trust client relationship. Discreet by design.
Track Record
$40M
2025 Revenue
Total sales volume closed in 2025
100+
Five-Star Reviews
Across Google, Birdeye, and RateMyAgent
5.0
Star Rating
Consistent across all verified review platforms
Wall Street Journal
Featured coverage of Foreman Property Group
Texas Team of the Year
2025 recognition for production and client service
CLHMS Certified
Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist designation
"Jacquelyn and Daniel went so far above and beyond to get our home sold. Their make-ready services are unmatched. Having that kind of concierge service made selling our home a breeze. They are Award Winning Realtors for a reason."
— Matt & Julie Jary
Next Steps
We are ready to move when you are. Here is the sequence:
1
Align on the Path
Confirm the preparation program and the $1,950,000 target list price. Everything downstream depends on this decision.
2
Close the Open Bids
We will secure the Star Glass window bid, the Projekt Pros primary bath bid, and bids for paint, lighting, quartz and pool tile within ten days.
3
Order Pre-List Inspections
Septic inspection and well flow and water-quality testing. On acreage, these are the two items that most often unravel a deal in the option period. We neutralize them before we launch.
4
Sign Listing Agreement & Disclosures
Execute the listing agreement and Texas disclosures so we can schedule vendors under a firm timeline.
5
Mobilize Vendors
Ten working weeks, sequenced as shown. FPG coordinates every trade.
6
Launch Late January 2027
Into the strongest contract window this market produces.